Most credit teams focus on when a customer pays.
But very few pay attention to a far more predictive metric: who the customer pays before you.
In industries with tight and unpredictable cash cycles—retail, distribution, transportation, and mining—this oversight can mean the difference between timely resolution and ending up in a bankruptcy queue.
This is the story of a national distributor that discovered, too late, that they weren’t just being paid slower…
They were being paid last.
And the data shows: that’s almost always the first warning sign of deeper financial trouble.
Vendor Priority: A Critical Risk Indicator Most Companies Never Track
According to aggregated Caine & Weiner case data across retail, distribution, transportation, and industrial clients:
- A vendor who drops in payment priority by more than 3 positions is 56% more likely to experience 60–90 day delinquency within two cycles.
- 78% of delinquent accounts show vendor priority drift at least one month before aging reports indicate risk.
- Priority drift is often the first sign of internal financial strain—even before missed payments or disputes appear.
This means payment order is not a trivial detail. It’s a forecast.
When customers ration cash, they don’t stop paying everyone at once. They pay critical vendors first:
- fuel and transportation (mission-critical)
- insurance
- equipment maintenance
- utilities
- essential raw materials
Then they pay everyone else if cash remains. The order reveals the truth long before the numbers do.
The Turning Point: When the Distributor Took Action
By the time they contacted Caine & Weiner, the customer was already entering a period of financial restructuring. Cash was being rationed at every level to maintain operations.
Because the distributor escalated early enough—based on priority signals, not overdue dates—they avoided being swept into the restructuring default pool.
A neutral third-party approach created urgency, restored communication, and resulted in a structured repayment agreement. They recovered 100%, while several lower-leverage vendors did not.
What Companies Should Watch For (Before Aging Reports Show Trouble)
Vendor priority tracking is one of the simplest, most effective early-warning tools available.
Companies should monitor:
Remittance order
Are you slipping behind vendors you used to precede?
Partial payments
A sign of rationing.
Longer communication gaps
Silence is not a coincidence.
More disputes
Not always real disputes—often delay tactics.
Industry pressure indicators
Fuel spikes, commodity swings, or seasonal downturns.
Short-term “cycle delays”
If they ask you to “wait for the next cycle,” cash flow is already tight.
Vendor chatter
Other vendors usually feel the pressure at the same time. Vendor priority tells you why, not just when.
The Bottom Line
Aging reports tell you the past. Vendor priority tells you the future.
Being paid late is an inconvenience. Being paid last is a warning.
A warning that cash is tightening. A warning that leverage is slipping. A warning that unless you act early, you may get left behind entirely.
For credit professionals managing accounts in volatile industries, vendor priority is not an optional metric—it’s one of the most powerful predictors of financial risk.
And the smart companies are the ones who read the warning signs before the collapse—not after.